Win Rate of the S&P 500
On Sunday, one of the most well-known tournaments came to a close, the Wimbledon Championship. Now, I am not a huge fan of tennis, but between this and something I saw on Instagram this morning, I was reminded about a crazy statistic that Roger Federer told students at Dartmouth’s graduation in 20241. He told students, “Being perfect in tennis is impossible…I won almost 80% of my matches… what percentage of points do you think I won in those matches? Only 54%.” Just 54%, let that sink in. Federer has won eight Wimbledon titles and is highly regarded as one of the best players ever, but he has only won 54% of the points in his matches. The points he did win would compound and eventually turn into a match win. Looking at those odds of 54%, he had better chances of getting a point than guessing heads or tails correctly, winning a hand of blackjack, or having a positive day on the S&P 500.
