July 2025 Market Recap

July was another surprisingly good month for the Canadian and U.S. stock markets, despite the August 1 deadline for increasing tariffs. Japan and the EU seemed to settle for 15% tariffs while Mexico managed another 90-day extension, all of which gave the market a boost. But the main factors seem to be continued economic resilience in both Canada and the U.S. Canada created 83,000 jobs in June. The U.S. figures were more disappointing at only 73,000 new jobs in July and other months being revised downward, but the numbers are still positive. Good profitability in the technology stocks, particularly those in AI also helped move stocks up.

Canada, however, remains without any new deal on tariffs. We are relying more on the fact that most of our trade with the U.S. can fall under the Canada, U.S., Mexico Free Trade deal, so that despite tariffs on steel, aluminum, etc., as much as 90% of our trade can still flow tariff-free.

On a cautionary note, I do believe that the move by the President to fire the head of the Department of Labor Statistics in the U.S. was a bad omen. Financial markets absolutely depend on accurate information, good or bad, and it definitely calls into question the accuracy of numbers that are produced in the U.S., if there is blatant political interference with who calculates them.

Mike

Disclaimer:
Information in this article is from sources believed to be reliable, however, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete. It is provided as a general source of information and should not be considered personal investment advice or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The views are those of the author, Michael Stott, and not necessarily those of Raymond James Ltd. Investors considering any investment should consult with their Investment Advisor to ensure that it is suitable for the investor’s circumstances and risk tolerance before making any investment