Investment Commentary November 2025

We just returned from our National Business Conference and wanted to provide you with an update from our U.S. Investment Strategist, Larry Adam. Below are the highlights for the U.S. market:

• There may be a market pullback in the short term due to the possible negative economic performance created by the tariffs and the government shutdown, which hopefully will be over shortly. The market valuations are stretched, and investors are complacent, which could be conditions that may lead to a pullback.
• We continue to be in a bull market, although markets do not move up linearly and, as such, pullbacks occur from time to time.
• Economic growth in the U.S. should increase in 2026, primarily due to the Big Beautiful Bill. The bill should spur economic growth for the following reasons:
  • Tax cuts are supportive of growth.
  • The favourable change in the depreciation rates for U.S. corporations.
  • The price of oil is expected to stay low.
  • The dollar is expected to stay low.
  • S. household net worth is increasing.
• The expectation is that markets will continue to be positive at this year-end and next year-end, despite the possibility of a short-term pullback.

We have also attached the details of the Canadian Budget which is expected to pass. The highlights are below:

• Deficit projected at $78.3 billion for 2025–26, up from $42 billion last year.
• $141 billion in new spending over five years, offset by $60 billion in savings.
• Public service downsizing: 40,000 positions to be cut through attrition and early retirement incentives.
• $334.3 million allocated to strengthen Canada’s quantum computing ecosystem.
• Investment in sovereign public AI infrastructure to boost productivity and service delivery.
• Indigenous health and social services funding frozen, amounting to a 2% cut.
• Veterans Affairs receives $184.9 million to improve disability benefits processing.
• Tree-planting program (2 billion trees) to be wound down; nearly 1 billion trees already committed.
• Luxury tax on planes and boats eliminated to support aviation and boating industries.
• Underused Housing Tax removed as of 2025.
• $3 billion annually committed to local infrastructure projects for the next 10 years.
• Funding includes support for universities, community centres, and memorials across Canada.
• No changes to personal or corporate tax rates.
• New top-up tax credit introduced to offset reduced value of non-refundable credits due to lower tax brackets.
• Adjustments to Home Accessibility Tax Credit (HATC) and Medical Expense Tax Credit (METC).

We don’t expect the budget to have a major impact on the markets and so far, there has been little reaction. The portfolio is expected to potentially benefit from the infrastructure spending and we will continue to monitor, as we always do. While Canadian markets may pull back, we do expect positive performance by year-end.

If you have any questions or concerns, we are always available to discuss them.

Regards,

Linda Shick
Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Wealth Advisor
T: 416-777-7109
linda.shick@raymondjames.ca

David J. Angas, CEA
Senior Financial Advisor, Certified Executor Advisor
T: 416-777-7110
david.angas@raymondjames.ca

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Information in this article is from sources believed to be reliable; however, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete. It is provided as a general source of information and should not be considered personal investment advice or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The views are those of the author, Family Wealth Counsel Advisory Group, and not necessarily those of Raymond James Ltd. Investors considering any investment should consult with their Investment Advisor to ensure that it is suitable for the investor’s circumstances and risk tolerance before making any investment decision. Raymond James Ltd. is a Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund.